NHC/NOAA 8PM Update – TS Gonzalo Expected to begin affecting portions of the Southern Windward Islands on Saturday

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
800 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

…GONZALO STILL HEADING DUE WEST…
…EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…9.7N 49.9W
ABOUT 775 MI…1250 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT…

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Tobago
* Grenada

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required for some of these islands tonight or on Friday.

Learn more here

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 49.9 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and
move across the islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane.
Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea.

Gonzalo is a compact tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within
the respective watch areas on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday
night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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