NHC/NOAA 5PM Update – Gonzalo forecast to bring Gusty Winds and Heavy Rains to portions of the Southern Windward Islands

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

…GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…10.0N 55.6W
ABOUT 390 MI…625 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago and Grenada.

The government of St. Lucia has canceled the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Learn more here

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 55.6 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands Saturday afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Gonzalo’s maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the system is forecast to dissipate early next week.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,  and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

Forecaster Zelinsky

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