NHC/NOAA 5AM Update – Poorly organized Gonzalo still producing a small area of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

…POORLY ORGANIZED GONZALO STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS…
…GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO
A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…10.1N 58.7W
ABOUT 180 MI…285 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Learn more here

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 58.7 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern  Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands later today. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in  Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela through
Monday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

Forecaster Roberts

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