NHC/NOAA 5AM Update – Tiny Gonzalo expected to bring Tropical Storm Conditions to the Southern Winward Islands Saturday

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

…TINY GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…10.0N 51.8W
ABOUT 645 MI…1040 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Learn more here

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 51.8 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and
move across these islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane
before reaching the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after
Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate by the middle of next week.

Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within
the respective watch areas on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight through Sunday night.
Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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