NHC/NOAA 11PM Update – Tropical Storm Gonzalo a little better organized

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

…GONZALO A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED…
…EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…9.9N 50.6W
ABOUT 730 MI…1170 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

cone graphic

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT…

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Learn more here

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 50.6 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the respective watch areas on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

Forecaster Roberts

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