NHC/NOAA 11AM Update – Gonzalo faces an uncertain future

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

...GONZALO FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE...
...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 48.3W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.  Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for some of these islands later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 48.3 West.  Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A westward to 
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is 
expected through the weekend.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night 
and move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of 
days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane tonight or on Friday.

Gonzalo is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend 
outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Saturday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
midday Saturday.

RAINFALL:  Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday
night.  Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago.  Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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