NHC 8PM UPDATE | Tropical wave producing shower and thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next two or three days. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands late Wednesday and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea late this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for at least gradual development of the system for a couple days thereafter while the system moves slowly northward between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.