NHC 8PM UPDATE | Broad area of low pressure east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

East of the Windward Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located just east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Earlier data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicated that the system did not yet possess a well-defined circulation center, with the majority of the shower and thunderstorm activity displaced to the southeast of the broader rotation. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next several days if the system remains over open waters while moving westward at about 15 mph through the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea. Another Air Force Reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow morning, if necessary.

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1. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

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