NHC 8AM UPDATE | Broad area of low pressure near the southern Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms

Radar imagery from Barbados and surface observations indicate that the system has not become any better organized since yesterday

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

East of the Windward Islands:
A broad area of low pressure located near the southern Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Radar imagery from Barbados and surface observations indicate that the system has not become any better organized since yesterday. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next several days if the system remains over water while moving generally westward at about 15 mph over the southeastern and southern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force reconnaissance mission is currently en route to investigate the system this morning.

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Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Key messages for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands can be found on the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov

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