METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, MBIA Tropical Weather Outlook – 26th August (8:00 AM)

Dorian is expected to bring showers and thundershowers to the state of Grenada (mainly the northern parts) by Monday night into Tuesday.

From: Meteorological Office
Monday, August 26, 2019 9:05 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (COURTESY: NHC)
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, MBIA
TIME/DATE: Monday 26th August 2019, 8:00 AM Outlook

FOR TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO

AREA OF SPECIAL INTEREST: 10 – 20 °N AND 45 – 65 °W

GRENADA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH…

At 8:00 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 57.0 West, about 262 miles east of Grenada.  Dorian is moving towards the west near 14 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. 

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On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight. Model guidance currently shows the center of Dorian passing just north of St. Vincent (latitude 13.2 North, longitude 60.3 West) at 2:00 AM tonight. Dorian is expected to move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and Wednesday while it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb, which indicates Dorian is strengthening slightly. Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with Dorian continues to fluctuate curtailing significant strengthening likely due to intrusions of dry air (the Saharan Air Layer.)  

The overall trend, however, suggests that Dorian is gradually getting better organized with its cloud pattern consisting of a compact central dense overcast (area of showers and thundershowers) and some broken outer bands. During the next couple of days, as Dorian moves through the Windward Islands and across the eastern Caribbean, slow strengthening seems likely due to low wind shear conditions and high sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the surrounding dry air around the cyclone should continue to limit the rate of intensification. 

Dorian is expected to bring showers and thundershowers to the state of Grenada (mainly the northern parts) by Monday night into Tuesday. As such, the Met Office has issued a low chance of flooding for the northern part of the state by Tuesday morning.

Citizens and all concerned are advised to closely follow the directions and advice of the National Disaster Management Agency (NaDMa) at this time. 

EUGINE WHINT
FORECASTER

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