MBIA Meteorological Services 5AM Update
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (COURTESY: NHC)
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, MBIA
TIME/DATE: Thursday, July 23, 2020 (5:00 AM)
FOR TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO
AREA OF SPECIAL INTEREST: 10 – 20 °N AND 45 – 65 °W
…GONZALO STRENGTHENS AGAIN WHILE STILL HEADING DUE WEST…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY…
SUMMARY OF 0500 AM AST…
LOCATION: 10.0N 47.0W
ABOUT 970 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH.
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 MB
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Barbados.
Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system, with a possible Tropical Storm Watch for Grenada issued today.
FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND IMPACTS
While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of Tropical Storm Gonzalo impacts due to high model uncertainty, the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo is forecasted to be near the Windward Islands around Saturday afternoon (center near 12.2N 60.1W at 2 PM), with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt, gusting to 85 kt. Storm force winds are expected to arrive as early as Saturday morning over the Lesser Antilles. Weather models suggest the center of the storm will pass between Grenada and St. Vincent. However, due to model uncertainty, it can possibly pass as low as south of Grenada to as high as just north of St. Lucia as a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane.
Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to bring cloudy and very windy conditions with moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers to Grenada by Saturday morning into afternoon with possible flooding and landslides in areas so prone.
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.