MBIA Met Office | Tropical Weather Outlook – Potential TS 9

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (COURTESY: NHC)

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, MBIA

TIME/DATE: Tuesday, July 28, 2020 (11:00 PM)

FOR TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO
AREA OF SPECIAL INTEREST: 10 – 20 °N AND 45 – 65 °W

...EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSHOWERS TO GRENADA

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST
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LOCATION: 14.6N 59.4W
ABOUT 230 MI ENE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW 25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 MB

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 1100 PM AST, the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 59.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move through the Leeward Islands (center south of Guadeloupe) on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.

Please note Grenada and its dependencies are NOT under any watch or warning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON GRENADA
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Due to the large size of this disturbance, some clusters of convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to traverse Grenada. Grenada is expected to experience cloudy to overcast conditions with light to heavy showers and the high chance of thunder tonight and tomorrow. A medium chance of flash flooding and landslides in areas in prone is also possible.

Across Grenada and its dependencies, 1 to 2 inches (25 – 50 mm) of rainfall is expected due to this disturbance.

NEXT ADVISORY
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Next advisory at 0500 AM AST.

EUGINE WHINT
DUTY FORECASTER