MBIA Met Office 2PM Update
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (COURTESY: NHC)
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, MBIA
TIME/DATE: Friday, July 24, 2020 (2:00 PM)
FOR TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO
AREA OF SPECIAL INTEREST: 10 – 20 °N AND 45 – 65 °W
…HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING GONZALO…
…GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…
LOCATION: 9.9N 54.8W
ABOUT: 445 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 MPH.
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Grenada.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours.
FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND IMPACTS
The Hurricane Hunter aircraft has not yet completed its survey of Gonzalo, but preliminary data indicate the maximum sustained winds are 45 mph. There is still considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast; however, but some strengthening is still possible during the next day or so before the storm reaches the southern Windward Islands. The center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo is forecast to move across the Windward Islands on Saturday (center near 11.4N 59.1W at 12 AM), with maximum sustained winds of 55 kt, gusting to 65 kt. Storm force winds are expected to arrive as early as Saturday morning over the Lesser Antilles. Weather models suggest the center of the storm will pass between Grenada and St. Vincent. However, due to model uncertainty, it can possibly pass as low as south of Grenada to as high as just north of St. Lucia as a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane.
Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to bring cloudy and very windy conditions with moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers to Grenada by Saturday morning into afternoon with possible flooding and landslides in areas so prone.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.