MBIA Met Office 2AM Update on tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (COURTESY: NHC)
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, MBIA
TIME/DATE: Monday, July 27, 2020 (2:00 AM)

FOR TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF MEXICO

AREA OF SPECIAL INTEREST: 10 – 20 °N AND 45 – 65 °W

1. A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is along 59W, south of 21N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nautical miles of the wave axis. This wave should traverse the island by Monday morning and is forecast to produce cloudiness and light to moderate showers with a medium chance of isolated thundershowers on Monday morning.

2. Shower activity continues to become a little better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic about midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, or about 1497 miles east of Grenada. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next day or two while moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

This system is expected to begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night. There is a high (80%) chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and 90% formation chance within 5 days. The Meteorological office continues to closely monitor this system and will provide pertinent information in a timely manner.

ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
.
TRISHA MILLER
FORECASTER