NHC/NOAA 2AM Update – Air Force reserve reconnaissance finds Tropical-storm-force winds

Gonzalo forecast to bring gusty winds and Heavy Rain to a portion of the Southern Windward Island beginning today

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
200 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

…AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.
GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…10.0N 57.8W
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Learn more here

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 57.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall
in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago could lead to areas of flash flooding.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

Forecaster Roberts

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