5AM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 12

500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 - Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 12

Please note that the following information is from the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov) the same source where MBIA Met Office and other Met Offices around the world receive their information

5AM BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

…DORIAN MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORMFORCE WINDS…
…NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.5N 60.7W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch from Isla Saona to Samana. The government of the Dominican Republic has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch on the south coast of the island from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque and on the north coast from Samana to Puerto Plata.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Learn more here

Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 60.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Barbados…Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6 inches. 
Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent…3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada…1 to 3 inches.
Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica…1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Saint Croix…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Dominican Republic…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially where totals exceed 4 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles today.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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