11PM UPDATE | ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES…

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 55.9 West.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

…ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER…
…MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…11.8N 55.9W
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 370 MI…600 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH…43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Grenada and its dependencies
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern
border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Learn more here

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 55.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward
Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Recent satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Recent satellite wind data also indicates the tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the north of the center. NOAA Buoy 41040, located more than 200 miles north of the center of Elsa, recently reported a wind gust of 38 mph (61 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, and are possible in Jamaica Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. 

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

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